In the vast expanse of our solar system, countless celestial bodies traverse the cosmos, often unnoticed.
Scientists at times discover asteroids when they show signs of approaching Earth.
Several scientific teams now study asteroid 2024 YR4 which became their main focus lately.
Space agencies work harder to track and assess asteroid 2024 YR4 because its rising threat requires increased observation.
The Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) at its Chile observatory found 2024 YR4 on December 27, 2024.
Based on estimates the space rock measures 40 to 90 meters in diameter which is equal to the Statue of Liberty.
The asteroid contains a rocky structure that scientific studies group with stony asteroids found throughout the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter.
After finding the asteroid astronomers studied its movement path to understand its possible planetary threats.
NASA and ESA staff used initial orbit analysis to find 2024 YR4 had little chance of hitting Earth.
The initial estimates about this asteroid based on theory proved inaccurate when real observation data became available.
ESA scientists stated in January 2025 that the object had a 1.2% chance to strike Earth.
NASA scientists revised their data in early February which identified a 2.3% possibility of impact.
The newest asteroid impact chance measurement 3.1% stands as the highest impact rating ever recorded.
The Near Earth Object Studies Center at NASA evaluates 2024 YR4 as an asteroid hazard level 3 on Torino Scale.
The rating system shows a level 10 ranking matches the destruction an asteroid caused when it ended dinosaur life on Earth.
Astronomers have defined the widest possible area where the asteroid might hit Earth.
The world’s possible asteroid impact zones overlap both northern South America and parts of southern Asia, the Pacific Ocean, the Arabian Sea, Africa, and other locations.
Nigeria heads this list alongside India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Sudan, Venezuela, Colombia, and Ecuador because all these nations lie within the projected impact path.
Scientists recognize the importance of continuous observation because 100 million people currently live in these vulnerable areas.
A collision between 2024 YR4 and Earth will have catastrophic outcomes.
According to research the energy from the impact would equal 8 megatons of TNT which represents 500 times more power than the bomb used in Hiroshima.
A direct impact into an urban area would kill many people and damage built environments while polluting air with debris that would change regional weather.
When an asteroid hits the ocean surface it creates powerful tsunamis that extend their impact across all coastal areas around the earth.
All space agencies including NASA and ESA now track 2024 YR4 more closely to earn better understanding of its path.
Scientists are collecting better measurements about the asteroid by using the James Webb Space Telescope.
Scientists now have difficulty tracking the asteroid since it will move behind the Sun in April 2025 until 2028.
The lack of asteroid visibility in 2025 requires experts to correctly predict its exact path to Earth before taking action.
NASA and their partner agencies study ways to redirect the asteroid before it becomes a threat to Earth.
During 2022 DART proved success as a potential deflection model when the mission repositioned an asteroid.
The proposed solution consists of using a spacecraft that would push an asteroid aside through direct impact.
A mission of this kind needs extensive preparation over many years and needs to be solidified well before any final decision is made because of its need for international collaboration.
NASA has raised the estimated risk level of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth to 3.1% after doing detailed observations during several months.
NASA reports their greatest-ever observed likelihood of an asteroid hitting Earth.
Scientists state that although the likelihood remains small the growing number shows that more tracking and precaution are necessary.
Scientists keep tracking the asteroid to see if Earth will suffer an impact by December 22 2032.
